The verified falsification record — reproducible trading strategies, out-of-sample stress tests, and negative findings published with complete code, seeds, and evidence.
BTC-crash → ETH/SOL cross-asset signal: Sharpe 0.96 on 96 events, WFE 0.47, costs eat 62% of edge. WATCH verdict. 69-day corpus, no sealed OOS.
SergWe preregistered the trapped-long sequence (OI expansion, aggressive buying, failed breakout, OI contraction) and tried to kill it. It died. Hyperliquid has no OI history; this is a Binance 5m negative result.
SergOne of 276 crypto hour-pairs looked statistically compelling. Then realistic costs and chronological validation made it vanish across BTC, ETH and SOL.
SergA comprehensive study on 60,000 hourly bars (2019-2026) for BTC and ETH. Proves that 24h high breakouts have a robust, positive expectancy when aligned with the macro trend (+17.67% BTC, +10.88% ETH net of taker fees).
SergA systematic study of 7 classic Price Action patterns across BTC, ETH, and SOL. Reveals a strong SHORT bias, the failure of Bullish Pin Bars, and a tradable contrarian fading edge (+5.59% ETH 1h).
SergETH/SOL global L/S HIGH: val t=−2.06 / −3.13, not redundant with |r|; ETH OOS holds; Q3 ETH ≤0 at 0 bps. WATCH, not a book.
SergETH 15m volume residual C vs A: val t_γ=+2.12, OOS +2.56, disc also clears (unlike BTC). ~4.7 bps extra |r|. WATCH, not a trade.
SergETH/SOL 1h loc+streak: FULL replication of BTC thin fade on val; only loc survives jointly; dies at 5 bps. NOT_TRADEABLE.
SergAfter BTC 1h vol shocks, ETH |returns| jump +44–81%, but same-sign lead underperforms ETH own-momentum by 4–6 pp. REJECTED.
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